As sports betting continues to expand across the United States, California, the largest potential market in the country, remains an impenetrable fortress for commercial operators. Native American tribes, which dominate the gaming industry in the Golden State, have reaffirmed their stance: sports betting will not arrive in California until 2028 at the earliest.
During a lively panel discussion at the ICE Tribal Partnerships Seminar in Barcelona, California tribal leaders explained their strategy: take their time, solidify their position, and ensure that any expansion of gaming happens on their terms.
A Colossal Market, Yet Out of Reach
With an economy comparable to that of a developed nation and a tribal gaming industry generating over $34.6 billion annually, California represents a major prize for sports betting operators. Yet, despite efforts by giants like DraftKings and FanDuel, the tribes maintain firm control.
James Siva, chairman of the Morongo Band of Mission Indians, emphasized that public support for legalizing sports betting remains insufficient. « The data shows that Californians are skeptical, and we don’t want to rush things, » he said.
The 2022 referendum, which saw tribes clash with commercial operators in a record-breaking $450 million battle, left its mark. Neither of the two proposals was adopted, and since then, public support has even declined.
2028: A Realistic Timeline, But with Conditions
Tribal leaders, including Catalina Chacon of the Pechanga Band of Indians and Johnny Hernandez of the San Manuel Band of Mission Indians, believe that 2028 could be the year sports betting is finally legalized. But it will only happen if the tribes lead the charge.
« We’re in no rush, » Hernandez said. « We built this industry from the ground up, and we don’t want to risk compromising what we’ve achieved. »
California tribes operate some of the largest casinos in the country, such as the Pechanga Resort Casino and the Yaamava’ Resort & Casino, which rival the giants of Las Vegas and Macau. For them, the stakes are not just financial: it’s about preserving their autonomy and ensuring sustainable economic development for their communities.
The Florida Model: An Inspiration for California?
During the discussions, Catalina Chacon pointed to Florida’s model, where sports betting is exclusively managed by tribes, as a potential path for California. This « Hub-and-Spoke » system allows tribes to control servers on their lands while offering statewide betting.
« The Florida model is interesting because it protects tribal interests while meeting consumer demand, » Chacon explained. In contrast, an open market, like Michigan’s, where commercial and tribal operators coexist, seems less appealing to California tribes.
Partnerships Possible, But Under Strict Control
While the tribes are open to partnerships with commercial entities, they insist that these collaborations must be strictly regulated. « We’re not against partnerships, but they must be transparent and aligned with our values, » Siva said.
For the tribes, gaming is not just a revenue stream: it’s a tool for economic and social development. Any partnership must therefore respect these principles and contribute to the sustainability of tribal communities.
A Missed Opportunity or a Winning Strategy?
While some see this cautious approach as a missed opportunity to quickly capture the billions of dollars generated by sports betting, others praise the tribes’ wisdom. « They’re right to take their time, » said Dr. Emily Carter, a gaming industry economist. « California is a complex market, and a rushed expansion could have disastrous consequences. »
In the meantime, commercial operators will have to wait. California tribes have made it clear that they will not relinquish their dominant position without solid guarantees. And with an annual economic impact of over $34.6 billion, they have the means to make their voices heard.
